The share of the ruble in payments for Russian exports reached a record 55.5% in June, according to the Russian Central Bank. For the first time on a quarterly basis, the ruble’s share in export settlements exceeded half, standing at 53.3%, The Moscow Times reports.
An estimated 40% of this increase stems from the need to bypass sanctions. Settlements have become more complicated as the U.S. threatens secondary sanctions against banks in countries helping Russia, forcing a shift to national currencies as a last resort. Payments in such currencies are less visible to Western regulators.
To maintain foreign trade, Russia has built a separate infrastructure—effectively an alternative international payments system. It operates in two parallel circuits: inside Russian banks, payments are made in rubles, while in foreign banks they are processed in yuan or other currencies. Where possible, these flows are closed: rubles collected from Russian importers are redirected to pay for Russian exports.
According to the Central Bank of Russia, exports amounted to $32.8 billion in June, $100 billion in Q2, and $196.1 billion in H1 2025. The ruble’s share in export settlements in Q1 was 46.5%.
Thus, roughly 40% of shadow settlements in rubles for Russian goods and services could equal about $13 billion per month, $40 billion in Q2, and $31 billion in Q1. Combined, this totals $71 billion over six months.
Most settlements are now carried out in rubles in the “domestic circuit” and in foreign currency in the “external circuit.” The ruble’s share rose mainly due to a decline in the share of “friendly” currencies, which in June dropped below 30% (29.9%) for the first time in two years. Before the war, their share was about 2%. “Unfriendly” currencies accounted for 14.6%.
In import settlements, the ruble has made up more than half since December 2024, hitting a record 54.6% in Q2. Analysts at Raiffeisenbank describe this as a key factor behind declining demand for foreign currency.
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