Countries of the Persian Gulf have lost about $15.1 billion in energy revenues since the start of strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran, according to estimates by analytics firm Kpler, reported by Financial Times.
Analysts estimate that under normal conditions, oil, petroleum products, and liquefied natural gas worth around $1.2 billion pass daily through the Strait of Hormuz.
After the escalation of the conflict on February 28, traffic through the key maritime route nearly came to a halt.
According to analyst Florian Grunberger, only “minor” cargo volumes are currently passing through the strait compared with the pre-war period. Crude oil accounts for the largest share of blocked shipments — about 71% of their total value.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has suffered the greatest losses. According to estimates by Wood Mackenzie, the kingdom has lost about $4.5 billion in revenue since the start of the war. At the same time, the country plans to significantly increase exports via the Red Sea in the coming days.
Peter Martin, head of the economics division at Wood Mackenzie, noted that Iraq is particularly vulnerable, as around 90% of its budget revenues come from the oil sector.
“Kuwait and Qatar are also heavily dependent on energy exports, but they have large sovereign wealth funds that can soften the short-term impact,” he added.
According to Kpler, at least $10.7 billion worth of cargoes of crude oil, petroleum products, and liquefied natural gas remain blocked in the Strait of Hormuz. Some of these shipments had already been sold under long-term contracts signed before the war, meaning they could still generate revenue depending on payment terms, which typically range from 15 to 30 days after loading.
Antoine Halff, co-founder of Kayrros, said that Saudi Arabia may be able to withstand export disruptions more easily than Iraq, which he warned could face greater financial losses.
Saudi Arabia also holds oil stocks in overseas storage facilities and can continue supplying customers for some time. In addition, rising global oil prices partially offset losses caused by reduced exports. However, the main financial burden of higher energy prices will ultimately fall on motorists and other end consumers.
According to Wood Mackenzie, oil-producing countries in the Persian Gulf — including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain — have collectively postponed oil sales worth about $13.3 billion.
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