On July 15, OPEC + countries decided at a meeting to gradually increase oil production due to improved demand.
“During a meeting of the ministerial monitoring committee, both co-chairs, Russian and Saudi energy ministers Alexander Novak and Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said that demand for oil was recovering and production could be increased, but the issue of compensation was not fully met commitments in May and June,” the statement said.
It is noted that in May, OPEC + countries fulfilled their obligations by 89%, that is a “shortfall” amounted to almost 1 million bpd, while in June, the agreement was fulfilled by 95%, which means the market received “extra” 485 000 bpd. Totally, in two months it was about 1.5 million bpd. According to the OPEC report, only the cartel countries should reduce production by another 1.3 million bpd in the future in addition to their quotas. Among the most vicious violators are Iraq, Nigeria, Angola, Gabon, Congo. Among the non-OPEC countries only Kazakhstan was publicly announced.
Following the meeting of the committee, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that taking into account the compensation, the reduction in oil production in August will not be 7.7 million bpd but about 8.1-8.2 million bpd ‒ this is the lower limit of the reduction in August. The top end calculated on the basis of data from secondary sources is 8.343 million bpd.
According to the press release, Nigeria, Iraq, Angola, Gabon, Congo and non-OPEC South Sudan confirmed their steadfastness in the agreement and their intentions to compensate for the “shortfall”.
The committee is also waiting until the end of July for the “debt repayment” schedules for June from the countries that have not yet submitted them. The next JMMC will take place on August 18.
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