Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, which resumed in August and hit at least seven large plants, could cause irreparable damage to Russia’s refining industry. This was stated by Sergei Vakulenko, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Financial Times reports.
Since the beginning of the month, drone attacks have fully shut down the Syzran, Novokuibyshevsk, Saratov, and Volgograd refineries. The Ryazan refinery of Rosneft, which supplies Moscow and the surrounding region, has lost half of its capacity. The Slavyansk, Afipsky, and Novoshakhtinsk refineries have also been hit.
Last year, Ukrainian drone raids had already pushed Russia’s refining volumes down to a 12-year low of 267 million tons. At that time, however, the strikes were scattered and usually targeted one refinery at a time. Now, the campaign is aimed at multiple plants across key consumption and refining regions.
Some of the country’s largest facilities have come under attack, including Volgograd (Lukoil, 14.8 million tons per year) and Ryazan (Rosneft, 13.8 million tons per year). In just over two weeks, drones knocked out at least 10% of refining capacity.
To cover the shortfall, the government imposed a complete ban on gasoline exports, which is expected to add about 150,000 tons of fuel to domestic filling stations.
Fuel shortages have already emerged in Crimea, where authorities reintroduced the Soviet-era practice of selling gasoline with coupons. Gasoline has also disappeared from filling stations in Zabaykalsky Krai, the Kuril Islands, and Primorye, where drivers are forced to wait in multi-hour queues. Wholesale gasoline prices have jumped 40–50% since the beginning of the year, breaking records throughout August: AI-92 reached 72,600 rubles per ton, and AI-95 hit 82,200 rubles.
The situation is further aggravated by the lack of reliable data: nobody knows how much gasoline is actually being produced, since last year the Russian government classified refinery statistics.
Refinery problems are also tied to sanctions, which have disrupted maintenance. Almost all major Russian refineries were built or modernized with the participation of European and U.S. companies. But Western refinery equipment was immediately sanctioned as part of the first package of measures following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Russia has so far failed to switch to domestic equipment, despite the government’s import substitution policy.
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