Business activity growth in the United States slowed to an eleven-month low in March, as companies faced increased uncertainty and rising living costs linked to the ongoing war in Iran, which has been underway for nearly a month, according to S&P Global.
The preliminary S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI fell to 51.4 this month, down from 51.9 in February. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.
The services sector — the main driver of the U.S. economy — has been hit harder by inflationary pressures caused by the conflict than the manufacturing sector.
The Services PMI also declined to 51.1 from 51.7, marking its lowest level in eleven months. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.9, reaching a two-month high.
According to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, March survey data point to an “unwelcome combination” of slowing growth and rising inflation following the start of the joint U.S.-Israeli offensive on Iran in late February.
“Companies report a hit to demand due to heightened uncertainty and the impact on the cost of living caused by the conflict. Issues related to travel, transportation, and tourism are being exacerbated by financial market volatility and availability constraints, including concerns over higher interest rates, a sharp rise in energy prices, and supply chain delays,” he said.
Williamson added that companies are building “buffer inventories” and reducing headcount to cut overhead costs.
PMI data indicate that overall U.S. GDP — a key measure of economic growth — is expanding at an annualized rate of just 1.0%, with “modest growth of 1.3% expected for the first quarter overall.”
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