The fall in gross of the domestic product of Ukraine in 2020 will amount to 6%, however, from the next year the economy will growth again: in 2021 – by 4%, in 2022-2023 – by 3% annually, such a forecast is contained in the report of the International Rating Agency Standard & Poor’s (S&P) on the confirmation of Ukraine’s ratings at “B / B”.
The agency expects lower inflation this year to 3% from 7.9% last year and an increase of 6% in 2021 and 5% in 2022-2023, respectively.
According to agency`s estimates, the hryvnia exchange rate will drop to UAH 29 / $ 1 by the end of this year, by the end of the next – up to 30 UAH / $ 1, and by the end of 2022 and 2023 – respectively 30.5 UAH / $ 1 and 31 UAH / $ 1.
According to the documents, a small devaluation of the hryvnia will be accompanied by an increase in reserves: from $ 24.77 billion at the end of last year to $ 27.73 billion at the end of this year, $ 30.19 billion by the end of next year and $ 31.39 billion by the end of 2022.
Such S&P’s estimates are based on the assumption that the deficit of the state budget will be reduced from 7.5% of GDP this year to 5.3% of GDP next year and 3% and 2.5% in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine last week proposed to identify the deficit of the budget in 2021 to 6% of GDP, and in the next two years – 4.5% and 3% of GDP respectively.
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