The International Energy Agency (IEA) has stated that the prolonged decline in exports of oil and petroleum products from Russia calls into question its ability to maintain production capacity. In June, supplies remained at their lowest seasonal level in five years, according to Bloomberg.
‘Supplies of both crude oil and petroleum products remained exceptionally low in June, reaching a five-year seasonal low,’ the Paris-based agency reported.
According to its data, flows deteriorated throughout most of 2024 and 2025. This ‘calls into question Russia’s ability to maintain its production capacity,’ the IEA said in a statement.
According to the IEA, daily crude oil shipments from Russia last month amounted to 4.68 million barrels, while petroleum product exports fell to 2.55 million barrels per day, down 110,000 barrels per day from May.
At the same time, total oil export revenues rose to $13.6 billion (+6.4%), mainly due to rising prices amid geopolitical tensions.
Despite the decline in maritime exports, oil refining at Russian refineries remained high in June, even taking into account seasonal maintenance. The decline in exports is partly due to the authorities’ intention to secure the domestic market with fuel ahead of peak demand in the agricultural sector.
The IEA estimated Russia’s stable production capacity at 9.8 million barrels per day. In June, actual production, excluding condensate, amounted to 9.19 million barrels, which is 140,000 more than the OPEC+ quota for the month.
An independent assessment of the state of Russian oil production is complicated by the fact that Moscow has classified official data since the start of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Analysts rely on satellite tracking of tankers, refining estimates and compliance with OPEC+ quotas.
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