In the last week of October, investors expect a lot of news, as more than one-third of the components of the S&P 500 index, or 186 companies, must report financial results for the third quarter.
The information field is even richer given the election race in the United States, the situation with the pandemic and the anticipation of the decision of Congress on the bill to stimulate the economy “Cares 2”, which provides for the allocation of more than a trillion dollars.
Economists and analysts give their forecasts for companies’ revenues and profits, noting that the results of the reports of the largest companies S&P 500 will affect the market as a whole, as well as predicting high volatility in trading this week.
Brian Price, head of investment management at the Commonwealth Financial Network, told MarketWatch that most companies (about 84%) that have already reported their quarterly earnings have exceeded Wall Street expectations, although they were significantly lower than last quarter. 81% of companies also exceeded the analytical expectations for quarterly revenues.
“Profit and loss statements are important but the market seems to be focused on the election and any news related to the stimulus negotiations,” Price said. “It seems unlikely that we will receive a large package of incentives for elections and I am somewhat surprised that volatility is not higher in light of this uncertainty.”
This week’s quarterly reports, including such important components as Apple, Alphabet, Facebook and Amazon, will show the impact of the crisis, analysts and investors will also carefully assess the companies’ forecasts.
Statistics from the company’s S&P 500 reports, which have already reported results, show a 16.5% drop in third-quarter profit from a year earlier.
If this level of profit deterioration continues after most companies report this week, it will be the second largest decline in profit since the second quarter of 2009, when the average decline in profit was 26.9%.
At the industry level, nine of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 index reported lower profits than last year, primarily in energy (-123.6%).
Research group Credit Suisse forecasts a 16.9% drop in earnings per share.
As for the average revenue forecast for the third quarter, Credit Suisse analysts also expect a decline of 3.7%.
However, there are positive forecasts, market experts from the Leuthold Group expect that a strong rise in sectors such as technology and healthcare will help stimulate market growth, resulting in unprecedentedly sharp revenue growth and record earnings per share in 2021.
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