Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, stated that inflation in Ukraine in 2026 could be 1.5% to 2.8% higher due to rising fuel prices caused by the war in the Middle East. He made this statement during a discussion hosted by the Centre for Economic Strategy, the National Bank reported.
According to him, the direct impact of higher fuel prices on inflation this year could amount to 0.5 to 1 percentage point, while secondary effects could be nearly twice as large. This means that inflation in 2026 could be 1.5% to 2.8% higher than it would have been without the war in the Middle East.
In particular, the increase in fuel prices in March, triggered by the conflict in the Middle East, added 0.4 percentage points to inflation in Ukraine. As a result, the expected turning point in the inflation trend, initially projected for mid-year, occurred earlier. Inflation accelerated to 7.9% in March.
Lepushynskyi noted that inflation is also influenced by a range of other factors: some accelerate it, while others restrain it. Therefore, the NBU will present its final assessment in a new macroeconomic forecast.
The direct impact on Ukraine’s GDP is currently limited, but secondary effects may be more significant. These include, in particular, the depletion of global weapons stockpiles needed by Ukraine, as well as increased revenues for Russia. Higher oil prices will not solve the structural problems of the Russian economy but will provide it with additional resources.
At the same time, the National Bank has already responded to the risks by keeping its key policy rate unchanged in March, despite earlier expectations of a cut. Further actions will depend, among other things, on the stability of inflation expectations. If risks persist, the NBU will postpone the rate-cutting cycle; if they intensify, it is prepared to raise the rate. The NBU will also continue to support the stability of the foreign exchange market.
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