Russia Braces for $40-per-Barrel Oil Prices

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Russia Braces for $40-per-Barrel Oil Prices

12.08.2025 News

Russia is preparing for oil prices to fall to $40 per barrel due to an oversupply, China’s economic slowdown, and increased oil production by OPEC+ countries, according to Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service.

Global oil prices could drop to $40–50 per barrel in late 2025 to early 2026, the Russian Roscongress Foundation notes in its report. Intelligence sources recalled that a barrel currently costs $66–68, but the market is facing “a new price war.”

“The OPEC+ oil deal is falling apart: Saudi Arabia is ramping up oil production, creating an oversupply. Shale exporters are also rapidly increasing drilling despite the price,” the intelligence service explained.

Additional pressure on the market comes from China’s economic slowdown, as well as increased oil exports from Brazil, Guyana, and Norway. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks, which previously pushed prices up by several dollars, now have almost no impact. As a result, global oil supply is growing faster than demand.

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