For Ukraine, wheat production expectations for the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY, July-June) have been lowered by 1 million tonnes compared to the June forecast, to 22 million tonnes (by 4.35%), while corn production expectations remain unchanged while for soybeans it has been increased by 1 million tonnes to 7.6 million tonnes (by 15.15%). These are the figures from the forecast by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Thus, wheat exports from Ukraine were reduced by 1 million tonnes to 15.5 million tonnes, and ending stocks were increased by 0.1 million tonnes to 1.59 million tonnes.
The corn harvest in Ukraine in 2025/26 MY is expected to be 30.5 million tonnes, exports – 24 million tonnes, and ending stocks – 0.6 million tonnes.
“Forecasts for global soybean supply and demand for 2025/26 predict an increase in supply, an increase in processing volumes, a decrease in exports and an increase in ending stocks. (…) The biggest surprise came from Ukraine, where production was sharply increased by 1 million tonnes to 7.6 million tonnes. This is not only higher than the previous forecast, but also exceeds last season’s record (7 million tonnes). Global soybean production has been increased due to an increase in the production forecast for Ukraine based on government data on the progress of sowing,” the report says.
The US Department of Agriculture forecasts global wheat production in 2025/26 MY at 808.5 million tonnes (-0.04 million tonnes compared to last season). Supplies are expected to decline by 0.4 million tonnes to 1 billion 072.1 million tonnes, with initial stocks for many countries declining due to lower production in Canada, Ukraine and Iran, offsetting increased production in Kazakhstan, the EU, Pakistan and Russia. Global consumption will increase by 0.8 million tonnes to 810.6 million tonnes, mainly due to increased consumption and carryover stocks in Kazakhstan and Thailand.
Global trade is reported to decline by 1.3 million tonnes to 213.1 million tonnes due to reduced exports from the EU and Ukraine, which is only partially offset by increased exports from Russia and the US. Projected global ending stocks for the 2025/26 marketing year have been reduced by 1.2 million tonnes to 261.5 million tonnes, mainly due to lower expectations for Canada and the EU.
The US Department of Agriculture also forecasts global corn production in 2025/26 MY at 1 billion 263.66 million tonnes (-2.32 million tonnes compared to the previous season). The estimate for global corn exports is 195.81 million tonnes (-0.01 million tonnes), and the forecast for ending stocks is 272.08 million tonnes (-3.16 million tonnes).
The forecast for global soybean production in 2025/26 MY has been increased by 0.86 million tonnes to 427.7 million tonnes, exports have been reduced by 0.8 million tonnes to 187.6 million tonnes, and the forecast for global soybean ending stocks has been increased by 0.77 million tonnes to 126.07 million tonnes.
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