The Ukrainian economy will recover from the effects of the corona crisis in two or three years. This assessment of experts was published by the Ministry of Economy in a report on the impact of coronavirus on Ukraine.
The agency reminded that last year the economy lost 4%, but this year GDP is expected to grow by 4.1%. In the next two years, growth rates will be lower – 3.5% and 3.9%.
“Ukraine needs two to three years to restore the lost potential during the COVID-19 pandemic,” the report said.
It is noted that in terms of entering the growth trajectory, the demand for labor will gradually increase, and the unemployment rate will decrease, but will not reach the pre-pandemic level (consensus estimate for 2021 remained at the previous level and was 9.2%, for 2022 – slightly increased to 8.7% compared to the previous 8.5%).
The consensus estimate of inflation for 2021 is 7.4% against 6% (preliminary estimate), for 2022 – 6.6% as opposed to 6%, respectively. Inflation will return to the National Bank’s targets (5.7% in 2023 and 5.1% in 2024).
According to the NBU, in the first quarter of 2021, Ukraine’s economy shrank by 1.5%. The central bank also downgraded its growth forecast due to quarantine restrictions.
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