Trade between Russia and China, which became a key pillar of the Russian economy under Western sanctions, began to decline in 2025 for the first time since the start of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.
From January to November, China cut purchases of Russian crude oil by 7.6% to 91.5 million tonnes. In value terms, exports fell by 20% due to lower prices and larger discounts.
Imports of Russian petroleum products declined by 3% for light distillates and by 33% for heavy distillates. In monetary terms, shipments dropped by 33% and 40%, respectively.
Russian coal exports to China fell by 11% in volume terms to 72.4 million tonnes. Timber supplies decreased by 10% in physical terms and by 8.7% in value. Purchases of ferrous metals collapsed by 63% to 245,000 tonnes.
Despite a 12% increase in liquefied natural gas exports to China in physical terms, their value fell by 1.8%.
In addition, for the first time since the war began, shipments of Chinese goods to Russia also declined—by 11.8% to $91.7 billion. Imports of Chinese vehicles were cut in half.
In the first year of the war, Russia–China trade grew by 30%, and by another 30% in 2023. In 2024, growth slowed to 2%, while in 2025 a downturn began. As a result, Russia’s share in China’s exports fell from 3.2% to 2.7%, pushing Russia down to ninth place among China’s largest buyers.
The contraction in trade continues despite appeals by Russian President Vladimir Putin, voiced during his four-day visit to Beijing in August.
Analysts note that a 1% decline in aggregate demand in China reduces Russia’s GDP by 0.1%, while a 30% drop in Chinese and Indian purchases of Russian oil would lead to a 1.6% contraction of the Russian economy.
Thus, despite Kremlin statements about a “strategic partnership without limits” with China, experts stress that the relationship remains deeply asymmetric. For Russia, China is a key market for raw materials—primarily oil and gas—whereas for China, Russia remains a relatively small export market.
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