The climate phenomenon known as \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d in 2026\u20132027 is unlikely to significantly reduce global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG), despite the potential for much warmer winters in Asia. This is the conclusion reached by Bernstein analysts in a research note.<\/p>\n
According to their estimates, even if El Ni\u00f1o becomes one of the strongest on record, the reduction in LNG imports in Asia could amount to less than 1 billion cubic feet per day, or around 1% of global LNG imports.<\/p>\n
The analysts noted that this figure is within the range of normal year-to-year fluctuations in demand.<\/p>\n
To assess the impact of weather conditions, Bernstein used Japan as a proxy for the Asian market, given the country\u2019s reliance on imported LNG and its sensitivity to weather conditions.<\/p>\n
The analysts found a strong relationship between heating degree days\u2014a measure of heating demand\u2014and LNG consumption. At the same time, the correlation between cooling degree days and LNG use was found to be almost nonexistent.<\/p>\n
Under a \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d scenario, winter heating degree days in Japan would decline by 19%. However, analysts estimate that LNG consumption would fall by only 2%, to 9.1 BCFD.<\/p>\n
The analysts attributed the limited response in demand to a significant base level of LNG consumption that is relatively insensitive to weather conditions.<\/p>\n
If the 2% reduction is applied to the rest of the Asian market, regional LNG imports would decline by less than 0.7 BCFD, Bernstein said. This would amount to around 1% of global LNG imports.<\/p>\n
According to the analysts, structural and market factors could have a greater impact on demand than temperature changes associated with El Ni\u00f1o. These include inventory levels, the economic feasibility of switching to other fuels, LNG and coal prices, and supply disruptions.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":152251,"menu_order":0,"template":"","newscat":[9],"newstag":[],"issues":[],"class_list":["post-152250","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","newscat-novosti"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/152250","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/152251"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=152250"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"newscat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newscat?post=152250"},{"taxonomy":"newstag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newstag?post=152250"},{"taxonomy":"issues","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issues?post=152250"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}