Wheat exports from Russia and Ukraine traditionally reach their highest levels in August, but this year they have virtually come to a halt. Ships have stopped calling at Ukrainian ports in Odesa, which Russia has been targeting with missile strikes. Meanwhile, grain terminals in Novorossiysk have suspended operations due to Ukrainian drone attacks. The Financial Times reports.<\/p>\n
The newspaper notes that, combined with record-breaking heat, the disruptions have pushed wheat futures close to a three-year high.<\/p>\n
Oxford Economics estimates that the global grain market could lose 86 million tonnes due to the maritime war between the two countries, equivalent to around 17% of global exports. Russia would be unable to deliver 52 million tonnes to buyers, while Ukraine could lose 34 million tonnes of exports. Alternative routes for Ukraine via rail and the Danube would compensate for only 17 million tonnes.<\/p>\n
Russia ranks first in global wheat exports, while Ukraine ranks fifth. Together, the two countries account for nearly 30% of global demand. Russian agricultural exports totaled $41 billion in 2025, accounting for less than 10% of its total export revenues. In Ukraine, the share is significantly higher, at around 60%.<\/p>\n
Due to Russian strikes on ports and vessels arriving to load cargo, Ukrainian grain exports fell 75% year-on-year in August, according to the Ukrainian government. At the same time, domestic prices have declined as grain accumulates in storage facilities with limited options for shipment. If the current situation persists, storage capacity could run out in the coming months.<\/p>\n
In Russia, wheat exports are forecast to fall to 2.2 million tonnes in August, down from 4.6 million tonnes in August 2025. Most shipments are expected to use routes outside the Azov and Black seas. Operating export capacity in the region has fallen from 3.3 million tonnes per month to just 250,000 tonnes at the only terminal currently operating in Tuapse.<\/p>\n
According to a UN forecast, climate change alone will create serious food-access problems for 50 million people this year. A halt in Ukrainian and Russian wheat exports could trigger an even more severe global food-security crisis.<\/p>\n
Oxford Economics expects global food prices to rise by 11.8% this year and by another 4.8% in 2027. An escalation of hostilities in the Azov and Black Sea basins could trigger a much more severe global food-price shock.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":152080,"menu_order":0,"template":"","newscat":[9],"newstag":[],"issues":[],"class_list":["post-152079","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","newscat-novosti"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/152079","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/152080"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=152079"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"newscat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newscat?post=152079"},{"taxonomy":"newstag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newstag?post=152079"},{"taxonomy":"issues","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issues?post=152079"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}