Global oil demand is expected to record its first annual decline since 2020, falling by approximately 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). The decline is attributed to the war involving Iran, which has disrupted oil production and exports across the Middle East.<\/p>\n
According to the agency, global oil production increased by 4.1 million bpd in June to 98.8 million bpd, driven by the partial recovery of exports from Gulf countries following the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n
The IEA expects global oil demand to gradually recover from its May low. However, total oil consumption is still projected to decline by around 1 million bpd over the course of 2026 before rebounding with growth of approximately 2 million bpd in 2027.<\/p>\n
The agency noted that despite higher crude oil supplies, refined petroleum product markets remain tight.<\/p>\n
The forecast is based on the assumption of a ceasefire and the gradual restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. However, this scenario appears increasingly unlikely following renewed exchanges of strikes between the United States and Iran. Several vessels have reportedly come under attack, and maritime traffic through the strategic waterway has once again been severely disrupted.<\/p>\n
“Although the market balance is likely to return to a surplus by the end of the year, the outlook depends on the gradual recovery of tanker traffic. The renewed fighting in the Gulf this week underscores the risks: a durable peace is essential for the normalization of global oil markets,” the IEA said.<\/p>\n
At the same time, Toril Bosoni, Head of the Oil Industry and Markets Division at the IEA, told CNBC that the recovery would not be “rapid or linear” and that the market is likely to remain “highly uncertain and volatile.”<\/p>\n
“However, thanks to increased production from other producers and weaker demand, we could return to a market surplus by the end of the year,” she added.<\/p>\n
The agency cautioned that any further escalation of hostilities could derail the recovery in oil supplies and significantly alter the outlook for the global oil market.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":151915,"menu_order":0,"template":"","newscat":[9],"newstag":[],"issues":[],"class_list":["post-151914","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","newscat-novosti"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/151914","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/151915"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=151914"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"newscat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newscat?post=151914"},{"taxonomy":"newstag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newstag?post=151914"},{"taxonomy":"issues","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issues?post=151914"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}