Rising fuel prices amid developments in the Middle East could add between 0.5 and 1 percentage point to inflation in Ukraine in 2026, while secondary effects may increase this impact by an additional 1\u20132 percentage points. This was stated by Deputy Governor of the National Bank of Ukraine, Volodymyr Lepushynskyi, in an interview with Interfax-Ukraine.<\/p>\n
\u201cSo far, our estimates are holding. In March, we projected fuel prices to rise by 12\u201316% month-on-month, and we saw 14%. The contribution to annual inflation in March was 0.4 percentage points. Indirect effects from this increase will be roughly twice as large and more prolonged over time,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
The NBU deputy governor added that overall, the impact of rising fuel prices this year could amount to 0.5\u20131 percentage point, with secondary effects adding another 1\u20132 percentage points.<\/p>\n
The primary effect of higher fuel prices gradually transforms into secondary effects \u2014 first through increased transportation costs with a lag of one to two months, and later through higher prices for goods and services. In the agricultural sector, this process may be more prolonged due to prior purchases of inputs at lower prices.<\/p>\n
Lepushynskyi also noted that developments in the Middle East are affecting Ukraine\u2019s trade balance due to rising prices for gas and petroleum products. If high energy prices persist, the negative impact on the economy could range from $1.5 billion to $3 billion annually, with an additional $140 million due to higher fertilizer costs.<\/p>\n
At the same time, higher global prices for agricultural products could serve as a mitigating factor, supporting Ukrainian exports. Further increases in global food prices could partially offset the negative economic effects.<\/p>\n
Among additional risks, the NBU representative cited increased fiscal capacity for Russia due to higher energy prices, as well as a potential slowdown in EU economies, which could negatively affect Ukraine. At the same time, the regulator is working on synchronizing sanctions and has already aligned several packages with the EU, Canada, the United Kingdom, Japan, and the United States.<\/p>\n
In its January inflation report, the National Bank projected inflation to slow to 7.5% by the end of 2026, to 6% in 2027, and to return to the target level of 5% in 2028.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":151441,"menu_order":0,"template":"","newscat":[9],"newstag":[],"issues":[],"class_list":["post-151440","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","newscat-novosti"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/151440","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/151441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=151440"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"newscat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newscat?post=151440"},{"taxonomy":"newstag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newstag?post=151440"},{"taxonomy":"issues","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issues?post=151440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}