Over nine months of the marketing year, Ukraine exported 9.7 million tons of wheat, which is only 55% of the projected export volume to international markets, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club.<\/p>\n
Experts noted that the current situation in the wheat market is unusual.<\/p>\n
\u201cAfter 75% of the marketing year, we have shipped just over half of the export potential. This is 25% lower than last year\u2019s figures. The EU, with its own harvest of 144 million tons, has effectively met its internal demand, forcing Ukrainian exporters to redirect shipments to African countries,\u201d analysts explained.<\/p>\n
Over the past four months, average monthly wheat exports have remained at around 600,000 tons. If this pace continues, carryover stocks at the end of the season could reach a record 7.0 million tons. This would exceed even the level of the 2021\/22 marketing year, when seaports were fully blocked.<\/p>\n
The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club outlines three possible scenarios. The first \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0434\u043f\u043e\u043b\u0430\u0433\u0430\u0435\u0442 (assumes) persistently low export rates, which would put pressure on domestic prices and lead to a shortage of storage capacity for the new harvest in July 2026. The second allows for rising global prices amid the war in the Middle East and higher fuel costs, which could partially offset the negative impact of large stockpiles. The third scenario requires increasing shipments to 2.4 million tons per month, which is difficult due to damage to port infrastructure.<\/p>\n
\u201cFor the optimistic scenario to materialize, Ukraine needs to ship about 5.4 million tons of wheat and corn combined each month. Although sea routes remain accessible, moderate global demand and logistical constraints make this a challenge for the industry. Under these conditions, carryover stocks could become a risk-hedging tool for farmers amid rising production costs,\u201d the association added.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":151403,"menu_order":0,"template":"","newscat":[9],"newstag":[],"issues":[],"class_list":["post-151402","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","newscat-novosti"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/151402","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/151403"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=151402"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"newscat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newscat?post=151402"},{"taxonomy":"newstag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newstag?post=151402"},{"taxonomy":"issues","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issues?post=151402"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}