The World Bank has downgraded its forecast for Russia\u2019s GDP growth, projecting that by 2028, the country\u2019s economic expansion will not exceed 1%, according to the latest World Bank report.<\/p>\n
For 2025, the growth forecast was revised downward from 1.4% (as expected in June) to 0.9%. The projection for 2026 was also lowered \u2014 from 1.2% to 0.8%, and for 2027 \u2014 from 1.2% to 1%. In 2024, Russia\u2019s GDP growth was estimated at 4.3%.<\/p>\n
The slowdown in Russia\u2019s economy is not a \u201cmanaged cooling,\u201d as claimed by the government, but rather an entry into a period of stagnation, the report notes.<\/p>\n
Most key indicators have been revised downward. The World Bank expects investment to decline by 0.4% this year and by 0.2% in 2026, with a modest recovery of 1.1% expected only in 2027. Consumer growth will also weaken, particularly in the private sector, increasing by just over 1% per year.<\/p>\n
According to the World Bank, there are no visible factors that could prevent Russia\u2019s stagnation. Falling oil prices have led to lower export revenues and shrinking budget income. Meanwhile, government spending has stabilized \u2014 meaning no further fiscal stimulus is expected \u2014 while high interest rates continue to suppress private demand and investment. Additionally, a labor shortage will keep restraining growth.<\/p>\n
The World Bank also disputes the Russian government\u2019s optimism regarding the reduction of the budget deficit. The Russian Ministry of Finance expects the deficit to reach 2.6% of GDP this year, gradually falling to 1.6% next year and 1.2\u20131.3% in 2027\u20132028. However, the World Bank projects a 2.9% deficit in 2025, and around 2.7% for the following two years.<\/p>\n
At the end of September, the Russian State Duma received a draft law to amend the 2025 budget, proposing to increase the deficit from 1.7% to 2.6% of GDP. As a result, the annual deficit is now expected to reach \u20bd5.73 trillion, compared to the previously forecasted \u20bd3.79 trillion.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":150387,"menu_order":0,"template":"","newscat":[9],"newstag":[],"issues":[],"class_list":["post-150386","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","newscat-novosti"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/150386","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/150387"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=150386"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"newscat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newscat?post=150386"},{"taxonomy":"newstag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newstag?post=150386"},{"taxonomy":"issues","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issues?post=150386"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}