The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised down its forecast for Ukraine\u2019s real GDP growth in 2025 from 3.3% to 2.5%, while keeping its 2026 forecast unchanged at 5.0%, conditional on the end of the war with Russia. The update was published in the EBRD\u2019s latest economic report.<\/p>\n
\u201cUkraine\u2019s GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.5% in 2025 amid heightened uncertainty linked to Russia\u2019s war against the country,\u201d the report states.<\/p>\n
Across the EBRD\u2019s regions of operation, overall economic growth is projected at 3.1% this year and 3.3% in 2026, slightly higher than earlier forecasts of 3.0% and 3.4% respectively.<\/p>\n
The bank emphasizes that Ukraine\u2019s economic outlook remains highly uncertain and depends on the course of the war, the condition of the energy system, and the scale of international support.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe government remains committed to macroeconomic discipline and structural reforms, seeking to mobilize public revenues, boost investment, improve state-owned enterprise management, and strengthen the resilience of the financial sector,\u201d the report notes.<\/p>\n
According to the EBRD, real GDP grew by 0.9% year-on-year in Q1 2025, supported by household consumption and investment in critical infrastructure. However, labor shortages, damage to energy facilities, and weak agricultural exports continue to weigh on growth.<\/p>\n
Unemployment has fallen to a wartime low of 12%, though recruitment remains difficult due to mobilization and emigration.<\/p>\n
Ukraine\u2019s current account deficit widened by nearly 50% in January\u2013July, reflecting high imports of military and energy goods and weak exports. The fiscal deficit is expected to reach 22% of GDP in 2025, with external financing of about $40 billion\u2014much of it coming from the EU, the G7 (through proceeds from frozen Russian assets), and the IMF.<\/p>\n
Inflation is projected to remain elevated, driven by food and utility prices as well as rising real wages, but is gradually easing\u2014from 15.9% in May to 13.2% in August 2025.<\/p>\n
The EBRD also highlighted that the National Bank of Ukraine has kept its key policy rate at 15.5% since March 2025 to help contain inflation, while foreign exchange reserves reached $46 billion in August, covering 5.5 months of imports and supporting currency stability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":150326,"menu_order":0,"template":"","newscat":[9],"newstag":[],"issues":[],"class_list":["post-150325","news","type-news","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","newscat-novosti"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news\/150325","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/news"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/news"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/150326"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=150325"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"newscat","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newscat?post=150325"},{"taxonomy":"newstag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newstag?post=150325"},{"taxonomy":"issues","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ldaily.ua\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/issues?post=150325"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}