Next year, Ukraine may face a number of macroeconomic risks that will greatly affect economic growth. The Ministry of Finance listed these risks.
In particular, Ukraine may lose 0.6-0.8 percentage points of GDP growth due to too low grain yields, due to which the budget will not receive UAH 8.5 billion.
At the same time, the risk of increasing insolvency of economic entities will have the greatest impact on the dynamics of GDP. In the case of its implementation, the employed population may decrease by 1%, or about 150 thousand people. In this case, GDP may decrease by 1 percentage point, and the budget may lose about 1.1 billion UAH of revenue.
According to the Ministry of Finance, in the event of increased Russian aggression, GDP losses could amount to about 0.2 percentage points. GDP. In case of realization of this risk, the budget will not receive UAH 2.4 billion in revenues.
The Ministry of Finance estimates the impact of non-residents’ exit from IGLBs on Ukrainian GDP within 0.1 percentage points. GDP, and the budget will not receive 1.2 billion UAH.
The curtailment of investment plans by foreign companies in 2022 may lead to a decrease in GDP by 0.7 percentage points, and the budget will lose UAH 8.5 billion in revenues.
Low credit activity of banks can cost the economy 0.1 percentage points. GDP (and the budget – 1.2 billion UAH).
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