With the appearance of an effective vaccine against coronavirus and the subsequent recovery of the world economy, the US dollar may fall by 20%. This was reported by the Financial Times.
It is noted that banks, which already had negative forecasts for the dollar next year, deteriorated expectations against the background of the emergence of new clinical trials of vaccines. Wall Street analysts expect that with the appearance of the vaccine, the dollar will “fall” due to growing confidence in the global economy.
“We believe that the emergence of the vaccine will provoke a bear market, allowing the dollar to follow a path similar to the one it followed from the beginning to the mid-2000s. Can the dollar fall by 20 percent next year? We think so,” said the CitiBank analyst.
According to Goldman Sachs spokesman Zach Pandle, the dollar will weaken even if the US economy begins to gain momentum.
“Even if the US economy works well enough, we think the dollar could weaken significantly as investors seek higher returns outside the US and move out of the safe havens they have been in throughout the COVID period,” he added.
Morgan Stanley cross-asset expert Andrew Sheets predicts the dollar index will fall by 4% and expects the exchange rates of Norway, Sweden, New Zealand and Australia to begin to rise when the vaccine becomes widely available.
“We are in an ideal position to grow risky assets, weaken the dollar and strengthen growth-sensitive currencies by the end of the year,” agrees George Saravelos, head of currency research at Deutsche Bank.
If the dollar falls by 20%, this decline will be the largest since early 2001. But then the 33% drop took several years, continuing until the 2008 financial crisis. Demand for other currencies in emerging markets has grown rapidly as investors have followed low interest rates. The trend was stopped by the global crisis.
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